Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1281 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

DL 1281 · ATL → EYW

departs 9:06 AM ET · arrives 11:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 45h before departure

Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?

8% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to EYW?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EYW is prone to delays

↑ 9am departures from ATL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

EYW (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1281 · ATL → EYW

Odds over time

How late will it get to EYW?