Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
DL 2251 · ORD → LGA
departs 8:30 AM CT · arrives 11:44 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Mon 11/9 30%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 34%
Thu 11/12 43%
Fri 11/13 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.