Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 469 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10 Tomorrow

DL 469 · DTW → SFO

departs 12:15 PM ET · arrives 2:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 26h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±4 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from DTW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 469 · DTW → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?