Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
OO 3854 · DTW → GRB
departs 4:58 PM ET · arrives 5:23 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Mon 11/9 15%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 22%
Thu 11/12 25%
Fri 11/13 23%
Sat 11/14 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at GRB more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GRB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at GRB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GRB?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
4pm departures from DTW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DTW (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GRB (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.