Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 3860
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
OO 3860 · ELM → DTW
departs 5:44 PM ET · arrives 7:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Mon 11/9 14%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 19%
Thu 11/12 18%
Fri 11/13 16%
Sat 11/14 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave ELM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
ELM (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DTW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.