OO 3911 · SNA → SEA

departs 7:00 PM PT · arrives 9:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts +24 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

OO 3911 · SNA → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?