Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4001
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
OO 4001 · SAN → LAX
departs 3:01 PM PT · arrives 4:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Mon 11/9 16%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 13%
Thu 11/12 16%
Fri 11/13 17%
Sat 11/14 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.