Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 4153
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
OO 4153 · SEA → SMF
departs 3:03 PM PT · arrives 5:09 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 51h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Mon 11/9 20%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 18%
Thu 11/12 16%
Fri 11/13 25%
Sat 11/14 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SEA that day
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↑
3pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.36 in
SMF (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.