Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5249
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
OO 5249 · SBN → ORD
departs 4:34 PM ET · arrives 4:40 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Mon 11/9 26%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 31%
Thu 11/12 39%
Fri 11/13 38%
Sat 11/14 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave SBN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SBN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.