Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5464
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
OO 5464 · SFO → SBA
departs 1:50 PM PT · arrives 3:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 27%
Thu 11/12 29%
Fri 11/13 43%
Sat 11/14 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at SBA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SBA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from SFO are often late
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SBA
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
SBA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.