Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1454 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

UA 1454 · IAH → NAS

departs 9:38 AM CT · arrives 1:37 PM EST

Forecast issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at NAS more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to NAS?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ 9am departures from IAH are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at IAH that day

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

NAS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1454 · IAH → NAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to NAS?