Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1800 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

UA 1800 · EWR → SFO

departs 8:19 PM ET · arrives 11:30 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 55h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ 8pm departures from EWR are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1800 · EWR → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?