Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1909 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

UA 1909 · SBP → SFO

departs 7:54 AM PT · arrives 9:07 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 40% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBP

Weather at each end

SBP (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1909 · SBP → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?