Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 1972 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

UA 1972 · ORD → SAT

departs 9:13 AM CT · arrives 12:08 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↑ ORD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 1972 · ORD → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?