Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2202 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

UA 2202 · ORD → IAD

departs 6:12 PM CT · arrives 9:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2202 · ORD → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?