Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2356 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

UA 2356 · LAS → SFO

departs 7:15 AM PT · arrives 8:52 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±2 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2356 · LAS → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?