Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 253 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

UA 253 · IAH → HNL

departs 9:35 AM CT · arrives 2:12 PM HT

Forecast issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 253 · IAH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?