Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 366 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

UA 366 · IAH → SMF

departs 9:59 AM CT · arrives 12:31 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 41h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±3 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↑ This flight has been late 17% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from IAH are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts4 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 366 · IAH → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?