UA 451 · IAH → BOS

took off 4:33 PM CT · expected to land 8:43 PM ET (scheduled 2:14 PM CT → 7:11 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BOS?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
97%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceiling5,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

BOS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 451 · IAH → BOS

Odds over time

How late will it get to BOS?