UA 520 · SFO → TPA

took off 12:16 PM PT · expected to land 7:48 PM ET (scheduled 12:05 PM PT → 8:37 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TPA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ SFO is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 520 · SFO → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?