Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 529 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10 Tomorrow

UA 529 · ORD → LGA

departs 11:11 AM CT · arrives 2:30 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ 11am departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 529 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?