Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8100 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10 Today

UA 8100 · SFO → STL

departs 12:19 PM PT · arrives 6:14 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±1 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts1 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8100 · SFO → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?