Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8145 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10 Yesterday

UA 8145 · RNO → SFO

departs 2:14 PM PT · arrives 3:34 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±0 pts +17 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 38% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8145 · RNO → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?