Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 8170 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

UA 8170 · TPA → IAD

departs 6:56 PM ET · arrives 9:34 PM ET

Forecast issued Sun 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAD (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8170 · TPA → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?