UA 8257 · SFO → SAN

took off 12:32 PM PT · landed 1:37 PM PT (scheduled 12:14 PM PT → 2:00 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SAN?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 12pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 8257 · SFO → SAN

Odds over time

How late did it get to SAN?