WN 1746 · LAX → RNO

took off 1:24 PM PT · expected to land 2:20 PM PT (scheduled 1:10 PM PT → 2:39 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RNO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from LAX are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 1746 · LAX → RNO

Odds over time

How late will it get to RNO?