Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1974
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 1974 · PHX → RDU
departs 11:07 AM MT · arrives 5:20 PM ET
Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 41h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.