Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 206
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10 Tomorrow
WN 206 · MDW → MCO
departs 1:11 PM CT · arrives 4:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 29%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 26%
Thu 11/12 25%
Fri 11/13 26%
Sat 11/14 20%
Sun 11/15 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±3 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from MDW are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.