Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2200
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 2200 · PHL → MDW
departs 11:43 AM ET · arrives 12:52 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from PHL are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.