Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2428 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10 Tomorrow

WN 2428 · AUS → MSY

departs 1:16 PM CT · arrives 2:52 PM CT

Forecast issued Mon 3:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2428 · AUS → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?