Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10 Tomorrow
WN 2492 · SBA → SAN
departs 10:53 AM PT · arrives 12:01 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave SBA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN
Weather at each end
SBA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.