Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2634
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 2634 · RNO → LAS
departs 8:04 AM PT · arrives 9:27 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 27%
Sun 11/8 9%
Mon 11/9 10%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 7%
Thu 11/12 14%
Fri 11/13 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8am departures from RNO are often late
↑
Other factors
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RNO (origin)
Gusts 3 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.