WN 282 · PHX → SDF

departs 1:30 PM MT · arrives 7:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SDF?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SDF (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 282 · PHX → SDF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SDF?