Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3003
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 3003 · PDX → SMF
departs 4:06 PM PT · arrives 5:49 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
PDX (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
SMF (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.