Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3009
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 3009 · BNA → LAX
departs 8:52 PM CT · arrives 11:16 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 46%
Mon 11/9 23%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
8pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.