WN 3209 · OAK → LAS

took off 5:36 PM PT · expected to land 6:38 PM PT (scheduled 5:36 PM PT → 7:16 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LAS?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts2 kt Ceiling8,067 ft Visibility6.9 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3209 · OAK → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?