Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3225
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 3225 · OAK → ONT
departs 7:56 PM PT · arrives 9:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Mon 11/9 25%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 19%
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13 40%
Odds over time
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at ONT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ONT?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from OAK are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK
Weather at each end
OAK (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
ONT (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.