Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3251
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10 Tomorrow
WN 3251 · OGG → HNL
departs 9:41 AM HT · arrives 10:37 AM HT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 8%
Thu 11/12 11%
Fri 11/13 11%
Sat 11/14 9%
Sun 11/15 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave OGG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
9am departures from OGG are usually not late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
OGG (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
HNL (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.