Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3502
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 3502 · PHX → SAN
departs 11:32 AM MT · arrives 11:55 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 44%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 34%
Thu 11/12 50%
Fri 11/13 64%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from PHX are often late
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.