Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3859
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10 Tomorrow
WN 3859 · DAL → ELP
departs 1:12 PM CT · arrives 2:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 10%
Sat 11/14 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DAL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at ELP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ELP?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from DAL are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ELP
Weather at each end
DAL (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ELP (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.