Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4022
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 4022 · SMF → LGB
departs 9:51 AM PT · arrives 11:26 AM PT
Forecast issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sun 11/8 9%
Mon 11/9 6%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 6%
Thu 11/12 7%
Fri 11/13 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at LGB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LGB?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGB (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.