Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4077
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 4077 · SNA → OAK
departs 7:31 PM PT · arrives 9:06 PM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 42%
Mon 11/9 27%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 18%
Thu 11/12 33%
Fri 11/13 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at OAK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to OAK?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into OAK at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
OAK (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 5 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.