Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4223
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 4223 · LGB → PDX
departs 10:46 AM PT · arrives 1:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 10%
Sat 11/14 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at PDX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PDX?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX
↑
LGB is prone to delays
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGB
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 7 mi Precip none
PDX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.