Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4612
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10 Tomorrow
WN 4612 · MDW → PVD
departs 1:32 PM CT · arrives 4:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 28h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 11%
Thu 11/12 25%
Fri 11/13 21%
Sun 11/15 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at PVD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PVD?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
Arrivals into PVD at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PVD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.