Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4623
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 4623 · SFO → PHX
departs 10:21 AM PT · arrives 1:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 48%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 34%
Thu 11/12 36%
Fri 11/13 52%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
36%
chance · ±2 pts
+14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
36%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +14 pts in 24h
+14 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from SFO are often late
↑
This flight has been late 39% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.