Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4780
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10
WN 4780 · HOU → MAF
departs 8:31 PM CT · arrives 10:08 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 56h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 50%
Mon 11/9 33%
Tue 11/10
Wed 11/11 29%
Thu 11/12 35%
Fri 11/13 36%
Sat 11/14 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MAF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave HOU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at MAF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MAF?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from HOU are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at HOU that day
Weather at each end
HOU (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
MAF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.