WN 4954 · SAN → SFO

took off 6:44 PM PT · landed 7:51 PM PT (scheduled 4:32 PM PT → 6:10 PM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from SAN are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SFO (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4954 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?