Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 5109 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, November 10

WN 5109 · LAS → TUS

departs 4:52 PM PT · arrives 7:17 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to TUS?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

TUS (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 5109 · LAS → TUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to TUS?