Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Nov 3, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 9004
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, November 10 Tomorrow
WN 9004 · LAS → SNA
departs 12:34 PM PT · arrives 1:46 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SNA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.