YX 3428 · IAD → BUF

departs 12:35 PM ET · arrives 2:06 PM ET

Your aircraft is N750YX (E75L), coming in as YX 3590 from YUL: landed 10:47 AM ET.

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 AM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ IAD is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into BUF at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from IAD are often late

↓ Tuesdays in November are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 3428 · IAD → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?